Covid-19 Thoughts

Discussion in 'Free For All' started by Steve, Apr 18, 2020.

  1. ScubaSteve

    ScubaSteve CCC's The Dude Registered Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2014
    Messages:
    4,262
    Likes Received:
    3,398
    Location:
    Philadelphia, USA
    Ratings:
    +6,176 / 7
    Some local based data. I don't want people to die. But what's happening isn't justified.

    upload_2020-4-22_14-28-37.png
     
    • Agree Agree x 6
    • Disagree Disagree x 1
    • List
  2. Steve

    Steve Administrator Owner

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2003
    Messages:
    17,471
    Likes Received:
    4,981
    Location:
    Cancun
    Ratings:
    +7,265 / 14
  3. SlyandTease

    SlyandTease Enthusiast Registered Member

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2014
    Messages:
    78
    Likes Received:
    20
    Location:
    Albuquerque NM
    Ratings:
    +22 / 0
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
    • List
  4. Steve

    Steve Administrator Owner

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2003
    Messages:
    17,471
    Likes Received:
    4,981
    Location:
    Cancun
    Ratings:
    +7,265 / 14
    Yes, June 1st is still the opening date currently. Some resorts are pushing back opening until July 1st, but I am confident that is because they don't have the advanced bookings - indirectly related to the virus but not because of the situation here. Temptation was the first to get back on its feet after Hurricane Wilma 2005 and Swine Flu 2009 (?) . It will be the first again.

    Of course, it's a rapidly changing situation and only time will tell. Lots of people may speculate (I personally hate that), but the statement we have from the hotel says June 1st. Until there is a new statement that supercedes what we have, that is what I go on.

    I would say if you want to read news about Mexico, look at Mexican news sources. Yep all in Spanish - but many browsers provide instant translations.

    US sources will have a pro US / anti Mexico bias, they always have had. Every year without fail, they bring out scare stories about Spring Break in Mexico. If I was planning on travelling to the States then I wouldn't be looking at Mexican media to find out the situation in the US.

    The article uses emotive language. They say "braces" could have said "awaits", they say "surge" they could have said "increase". They chose not to. Because it sounds more alarming, gets more social shares increasing their ad revenue, and appeals to the pro Trump readership that a so called Military news source is targeting. I have seen this particular link shared all over the place, which was the entire objective of the article.

    Other quotes:

    "Mexico has 1.4 hospital beds for every 1,000 citizens, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The United States has twice as many."
    What it doesn't mention is the US GDP is 18X that of Mexico. Who is really under-resourced?

    "For weeks, López Obrado was harshly criticized as he continued to travel around the country, kissing and hugging admirers and seeming to downplay the danger."
    Many people think Trump downplayed it too. No mention of that. And like the US, it is the Governors that make the decisions at State level and have been more diligent than our respective Presidents.

    "In recent weeks, officials have been scrambling to increase stocks of ventilators, masks, gowns and other items."
    Is that not the case in every country?

    "Mexican authorities have reported more than 500 coronavirus cases among medical professionals, including nine deaths."
    and no such problems in the US?

    Just a few examples of bullet points that cause alarm, but where our situation isn't dissimilar to anywhere else.

    The article linked is largely based on Mexico City which is a 2 hr flight from Cancun. Mexico City has a similar population to NYC, and like NYC also a very high population density. And like NYC the worst affected place in a very large country.

    You're planning on going to Cancun, so looking at Mexico City or the country as a whole isn't representative of where you are traveling to. Again to flip things around, I wouldn't be looking at stats for New York or the US as a whole if I was traveling to say Dallas.

    There are local news sources for Cancun I could link if you like, and I post a daily update of the official figures here:
    Cancun Covid 19 Update

    So, as for Cancun:

    Numbers are increasing, people say we (Mexico as a whole) are 4 weeks behind the US, but in Cancun we started all the same mitigation measures around the same time. Far earlier in the progression than the US did

    The cases per capita are the 6th highest out of 32 States, but 10% of the numbers in Mexico City

    I am also a believer in sunlight and high temperatures reducing the life of the virus on hard surfaces exposed to the sun. I know it is debatable, and doesn't really effect other forms of transmission, but I think it may play a role in reducing transmission here.

    You wouldn't expect this coronavirus to behave differently to other similar coronaviruses that have more established data that shows their susceptibility to those factors. Temperatures have been off the chart for the last few months and it hasn't rained since January.

    So in summary
    • June 1st is Temptation's open date. It may change, but until it does that is what we should work with, and not try to speculate
    • Temptation will be among the first to open of any resorts in Cancun
    • US media will always exaggerate the situation in Mexico.
    • News sources local to the area you are traveling will give you a better idea of the actual situation.
    • Numbers in Cancun are increasing, but are not ridiculously out of hand
     
    • Like Like x 3
    • Informative Informative x 3
    • List
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2020
  5. Steve

    Steve Administrator Owner

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2003
    Messages:
    17,471
    Likes Received:
    4,981
    Location:
    Cancun
    Ratings:
    +7,265 / 14
    I forgot to add, to indicate how strict our lockdown (Cancún) currently is:
    • No more than two adult passengers in any car, at all times
    • No cars are allowed on the road at any time if you have an out of state or foreign license plate. Unless an essential worker, or have a medical or food emergency.
    • No cars at all allowed to be on the road at weekends. Unless an essential worker, or have a medical or food emergency.

    You have to get a special card if you are an essential worker. Penalty is prison (or more likely a negotiable bribe).

    WTF is going on?
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2020
  6. Turbot

    Turbot Enthusiast Registered Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    46
    Likes Received:
    39
    Ratings:
    +56 / 1
    I agree with Steve’s comments on the “Words” the US press uses sometimes to describe events. I grew up in a former British colony and now live the US. My wife is a US citizen. I always tell my wife about my college experience in the the mid 70’s in the US siting in World Civilization and knowing the the professor is using English words but the context were in some instances the opposite to my English. Quite confusing. Having lived in the US for twenty years I have experienced this situation many times. I adjust for where I am now. I did not really come to the conclusion that we did use words differently until my son, who attended elementary and junior high in my country and high school and college in the US said he had the same problem and showed many examples. You’re never to old to learn and change but it shows you that different people can interpret the written or spoken word differently and we should choose them wisely. We were told, we could speak however we wanted (slang), but always write in the Queen’s English.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
    • List
  7. Rickpa

    Rickpa Regular Registered Member

    Joined:
    May 7, 2014
    Messages:
    133
    Likes Received:
    232
    Location:
    Colombia
    Ratings:
    +241 / 0
    So sad to hear those news but everybody is facing the virus circumstances. We've been in 40 days in lockdown. Our companies decided to give us early vacation so right now we'll continue in lockdown until May 11. We'll have to work from June to November 30.
    No summer vacation at all this year. We already canceled our trip to TTR. We'll see what happen and hope to be back to Paradise soon
     
  8. Stacia_and_John

    Stacia_and_John T&A Tour Guide Registered Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2012
    Messages:
    4,338
    Likes Received:
    3,034
    Location:
    Houston, TX
    Ratings:
    +4,620 / 14
    Huh... both of these/you dudes below always seem to be both rational, moderate in decision-making, and not prone to snap-judgment. I find these two quotes and points of view to be illustrative of the (relatively) diametrically opposing points of view on things. It is really very interesting, from a 10,000 foot view perspective. Down on the ground in NYC, I'd expect the viewpoint to be very different.

    One of Stacia's family is the CEO of a midwest hospital. We recently did a family Zoom for one of the little one's birthday celebration, and when the talk settled out of the signing etc., we had some of the usual discussion about how people are doing. The family CEO mentioned that her hospital is already over $1M USD behind budget... for this 2020 year. They "got behind" in a period of 5 weeks.

    The above is what I call "Perspective from the Economy."


    Len's conceptulization of electives not going forwards is from the opposing side of the bundle of issues we over-simplify (my opinion) and put into the box called "Corona Virus response." Do we want people to die? 'Course not. Do we want more people than... I guess I can't avoid saying "have to" become seriously ill, even if not sick enough to have to go to the hospital? Again, 'Course not. So, we should take all measures necessary to limit the spread and efficacy of the virus.

    I call the above "Perspective from the Public health."

    The above two positions... as well as the battles in the media.... shoot, even between people who are standing in line 6 feet or so apart... drive home the point of why so much of the law in the western world revolves around the word, "reasonable." As in, "we should take all reasonable measures necessary to limit the spread and efficacy of the virus.

    And Oh boy... inserting the word into the closing sentence above... that's really the rub, isn't it?
     
    • Like Like x 2
    • Informative Informative x 1
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
    • List
  9. Steve

    Steve Administrator Owner

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2003
    Messages:
    17,471
    Likes Received:
    4,981
    Location:
    Cancun
    Ratings:
    +7,265 / 14
    Agreed:

    "Bracing for a surge"

    Bracing is something you do when your plane is about to crash, or a dentist is about to drill your tooth for a root canal

    A surge is something you expect from a tsunami or a large out of control crowd.

    Mexico isn't "bracing for a surge", more like "anticipating an increase".
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2020
  10. Restling

    Restling I can choose my own title Registered Member

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    1,614
    Likes Received:
    819
    Ratings:
    +1,636 / 4
    Finally someone talking a little bit about re-opening, and it's not Trump, so there is a chance the actual message will be listened to. I wish there were more details in this, but at least it's something.

     
  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice