AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM... SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD... BUT A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY STILL OCCUR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL.
It has been raining since yesterday, the sky is cover by gray and black clouds, strong winds form the NE and very high tide. Tropical Storm Stan is aproaching to Cancun and a tropical storm warning is in effect for us. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST... ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 35 MILES... 60 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TULUM MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STAN WILL BE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR MOST OF TODAY... BUT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
should I cancel? I'm booked for Cancun for Oct 4 - 8 ... I'd hate to cancel, but Id hate to spend the vacation indoors watching the rain ... should I cancel or do you think there is a decent chance of it clearing up for Oct 4-8? What kinds of things do you do in Cacun when it is raining? Is it still fun? Thanks for any advice!
After having maybe 18hrs of almost constant torrential rain yesterday things seem to be brightening up again. We've been here over a year now and yesterday had the heaviest, most prolonged rain I've ever seen. The sky is overcast but its bright and dry outside with a moderate wind, at least for now. Current temp is 84F at 12:34 local time. The tropical storm has now moved inland and although we may well still see some of its effects it will be the tail end. Muddy, by the 4th the storm will be miles away and I would wager that things will be back to normal, at least as far as the effect of TS Stan is concerned. In October there is always a chance of rain but I wouldnt cancel a vacation because of it. Chances are you'll still see plenty of sun. What to do if it rains? Well most activities are obviously outside based, but all the bars, restaurants and clubs will still be open. There are several indoor shopping centres and a couple of movie theatres too. You might want to visit the aquarium at La Isla, you could combine that with some under cover shopping and a meal out Depending on your hotel the activities staff will probably keep guests entertained indoors too.
Thanks! Steve, Thanks for the note! ... I'm pretty sure we are going to go ... thanks again for your input!
i'll be in cancun Oct 5-11...does it look like rain the whole time or are they still predicting the storm to be out of the area by then?? Thanks
