I think its gonna be a lot stronger then that.... I think it'll reach category 5, personally. The key is whether or not it directly goes over land before getting to cancun (i.e.. Jamaica or D.R.). If it does, it'll probably only max out as a category 4, maybe even a 3..... if it doesnt, it'll probably be a category 5.
good news: one of the more trusted models has it missing cancun. bad news: it has a strong category 4 hurricane hitting new orleans.
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007 DEAN IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CLOUD-FILLED EYE THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 KT...WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN THE EYE OF DEAN LATER TODAY TO OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. WIND AND MAXIMUM SEAS DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 WERE CRITICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SHOULD CONTROL DEAN'S MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A SPEEDY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. IT IS STALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT 120 HR IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL FORECAST. ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AROUND DEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP WARM WATER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR THE 17/00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 13.7N 54.3W 80 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.1N 57.4W 90 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.6N 61.4W 95 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 64.9W 100 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.6N 68.4W 105 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 120 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 80 KT...INLAND
well, its saying wht i said... about how there is one model that has it missing cancun. There are about 20 models all together. Majority of them have it going directly over the Yucatan Peninsula. The one model (GDFL) that does have it missing Cancun was the 2nd most consistent model for 4-5 days out though, so at this point, its anyones guess.
Even this far out, it's looking quite likely we'll be in for a hit or near miss. All the boaties are planning to move across to Isla on the weekend, and expect it to arrive Tues/Weds Possibly the only saving grace will be if it grazes Jamaica and that causes it to change direction slightly. I've got 3 cars now and only garage space for 2. What to do....
wow, thats just nuts! I am certainly going to keep an eye on the weather channel all weekend, hopefully that thing catches a front and moves northward far from cancun!
Buffett Squalls out on the gulfstream, Big storms coming soon. I passed out in my hammock, God, I slept way past noon. Stood up and tried to focus, I hoped I wouldn't have to look far. I knew I could use a Bloody Mary, So I stumbled next door to the bar. Chorus And now I must confess, I could use some rest. I can't run at this pace very long. Yes, it's quite insane, I think it hurts my brain. But it cleans me out and then I can go on.
The 2:00 NHC Advisory: WTNT34 KNHC 161759 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 200 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007 ... AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REACHES HURRICANE DEAN... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE... GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 440 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 365 MILES...590 KM...EAST OF MARTINIQUE. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON BOARD OF THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST MEASURED 90 MPH...150 KM/HR SURFACE WINDS WHILE MAKING ITS FIRST ENTRANCE TO THE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...13.8 N...55.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
