UPDATED-- Hurricane Dean (Cat 5)

Discussion in 'Cancun Forum' started by Steve, Aug 13, 2007.

  1. BrianL

    BrianL Guest

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    I think its gonna be a lot stronger then that.... I think it'll reach category 5, personally. The key is whether or not it directly goes over land before getting to cancun (i.e.. Jamaica or D.R.). If it does, it'll probably only max out as a category 4, maybe even a 3..... if it doesnt, it'll probably be a category 5.
     
  2. BrianL

    BrianL Guest

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    good news: one of the more trusted models has it missing cancun.

    bad news: it has a strong category 4 hurricane hitting new orleans.


    [​IMG]
     
  3. EngineerGuy

    EngineerGuy I can choose my own title Registered Member

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    ya, new orleans doesnt need that either!! Hopefully it misses cancun and new orleans!!
     
  4. BrianL

    BrianL Guest

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    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
    1100 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

    DEAN IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL
    CLOUD-FILLED EYE THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE
    CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
    ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 KT...WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE
    HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE
    RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN THE EYE OF DEAN LATER TODAY TO
    OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. WIND AND MAXIMUM SEAS
    DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 WERE CRITICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
    PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SHOULD
    CONTROL DEAN'S MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD
    FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A SPEEDY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL
    CARIBBEAN SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
    THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE
    NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
    DEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
    ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. IT IS
    STALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE
    EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE
    MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
    SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
    OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT 120 HR IN
    DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL FORECAST.

    ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AROUND
    DEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP WARM
    WATER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR
    HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES
    A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP THIS
    SYSTEM INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THE TIME
    IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

    THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
    FOR THE 17/00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 16/1500Z 13.7N 54.3W 80 KT
    12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.1N 57.4W 90 KT
    24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.6N 61.4W 95 KT
    36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 64.9W 100 KT
    48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.6N 68.4W 105 KT
    72HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 110 KT
    96HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 120 KT
    120HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 80 KT...INLAND
     
  5. EngineerGuy

    EngineerGuy I can choose my own title Registered Member

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    from what that says, it will miss hitting cancun and travel into the gulf? lol crazy!
     
  6. BrianL

    BrianL Guest

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    well, its saying wht i said... about how there is one model that has it missing cancun. There are about 20 models all together. Majority of them have it going directly over the Yucatan Peninsula. The one model (GDFL) that does have it missing Cancun was the 2nd most consistent model for 4-5 days out though, so at this point, its anyones guess.
     
  7. Drewbert

    Drewbert Guest

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    Even this far out, it's looking quite likely we'll be in for a hit or near miss.

    All the boaties are planning to move across to Isla on the weekend, and expect it to arrive Tues/Weds

    Possibly the only saving grace will be if it grazes Jamaica and that causes it to change direction slightly.

    I've got 3 cars now and only garage space for 2. What to do....
     
  8. EngineerGuy

    EngineerGuy I can choose my own title Registered Member

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    wow, thats just nuts! I am certainly going to keep an eye on the weather channel all weekend, hopefully that thing catches a front and moves northward far from cancun!
     
  9. tele65

    tele65 Guest

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    Buffett

    Squalls out on the gulfstream,
    Big storms coming soon.
    I passed out in my hammock,
    God, I slept way past noon.
    Stood up and tried to focus,
    I hoped I wouldn't have to look far.
    I knew I could use a Bloody Mary,
    So I stumbled next door to the bar.

    Chorus
    And now I must confess,
    I could use some rest.
    I can't run at this pace very long.
    Yes, it's quite insane,
    I think it hurts my brain.
    But it cleans me out and then I can go on.
     
  10. BrianL

    BrianL Guest

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    The 2:00 NHC Advisory:



    WTNT34 KNHC 161759
    TCPAT4
    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
    200 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007

    ... AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REACHES HURRICANE DEAN...

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
    AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
    ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
    COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
    GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
    WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A
    HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
    MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
    OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
    VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
    MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
    TODAY.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
    PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
    OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES...
    440 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 365 MILES...590 KM...EAST OF
    MARTINIQUE.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
    DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
    OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
    INSTRUMENT ON BOARD OF THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST
    MEASURED 90 MPH...150 KM/HR SURFACE WINDS WHILE MAKING ITS FIRST
    ENTRANCE TO THE HURRICANE.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
    FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE
    CENTER.

    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
    AIRCRAFT WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
    ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
    NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
    ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
    FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...13.8 N...55.5 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    500 PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
     
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