Its hard to tell where things like this are "caught" but if some of these planes make runs to and from Mexico city its possible that some cross contamination is going on... its also possible as you said that its just coincidence.. after all.. if the first thing you ask is "have you been to Mexico" lots of people would just stop there and not look any further. I am not suggesting that a busy travel hub like Cancun will stay immune to this outbreak, but I am annoyed that the US news is so quick to mix up all of Mexico in this without knowing the facts.... just like they have been when "reporting" the drug violence.
A lot of people go to Cancun thru Mexico City. To think that Cancun can stay immune is illogical IMHO. No cases "reported" does not mean no cases exist. First of all, they don't even have the equipment to diagnose this stuff (Canada and CDC can - probably only ones that can). So no cases reported? Oh well..
It seems obvious.. but are the airlines providing masks to the passengers departing from Mexico City? or at least cleaning the planes every flight? if not, there is your biggest risk right there...
The reality of the situation given the widespread geographical focus of cases now reported is that virtually no one will be able to avoid contact of some type with the new influenza strain in a very short time period whether you live in Cancun, the U.S. or Canada to name a few, if you haven't already been in contact with it already. It's also important to point out that the large majority of influenza type cases being reported in Mexico City are not believed to be of the same strain variant as the new variant of AH1N1 influenza which is the swine based virus that officials are currently most concerned about. The situation for North America is serious and will be almost impossible to contain within the continent. However, it should be mentioned that the large majority of the people contracting the new variant are recovering quite quickly, similar to less worrisome forms of the flu. The largest fear, IMHO, is the % of fatalities that may be derived from exposure to the new variant, given a 25% total population contagion level, similar to other influenza outbreaks, and a potential 1-2% fatality rate of those contracting the influenza, the numbers are still staggering potentially when considering the overall population bases of the North, South and Latin American regions. JMO. In addition, thus far, and it may change: CDC Recommendations CDC has NOT recommended that people avoid travel to Mexico at this time. If you are planning travel to Mexico, follow these recommendations to reduce your risk of infection and help you stay healthy. http://wwwn.cdc.gov/travel/contentSwineFluMexico.aspx CDC Recommendations CDC has NOT recommended that people avoid travel (U.S.) at this time. If you are planning travel to these areas, the following recommendations will help you to reduce your risk of infection and stay healthy. http://wwwn.cdc.gov/travel/contentSwineFluUS.aspx
GREAT post, Dangers. I agree with everything you said. Just small correction: kill rate for this one is 7% in Mex which is truly scary.
stevesteve, why are you calling it "Cancun Swine Flu" on your blog? Very misleading and could confuse people. Rob
SteveSteve, just for the record where are you coming up with a "7% Kill" rate for Mexico, not that I specifically stated Mexico "alone" in my post regarding what you're referencing. The information I'm referencing are loose estimates based on past influenza outbreaks. Obviously, the situation could be for better or worse depending on the continued mutation, if any, of the variant. And, different population groups based on location, age, previous influenza exposure, health and life styles will effectively fall into sub groupings with lower and higher rates. The information is also just my opinion given the current information I've seen as previously stated.
I read that specific number 7% in a yahoo news article (I think) that I cannot find right now. It compared it to Spanish Flu of early in the century and it was a much higher figure. I am looking at this article link: it says 1300 sick, 81 dead, so that is 6.2% not far.
SteveSteve you have done nothing but scare people to death in your total of 25 posts on this forum. You are not really helping the situation, rather you are making it much worse then what it really is. Nobody in Cancun is sick of this flu. No symptoms from anyone have show up. So please tell the facts about the issue regarding Cancun and not the rest of the planet.
