Steve - It is not that difficult but maybe I did not say it just right. The link is a 5 Day Forecast. Forget what it is now. What is important is what we have to look forward to in Cancun. At this moment it seems Cancun is dead ahead of th storm. Where it is now is south of Jamaica, at Class 4 at at 2 am it will still be a Class 4 and the "forecast" is that it will be due south of the center of Jamaica. The forecast then indicates that it will pick up strength and be a Class 5, drop back to 4 and then up to 5 again as it takes aim at us. As it goes over the Yucatan it is forecasted to drop down to a Class 3 and then it appears that it will weaken over Central Mexico into a Tropical Storm. I hope this explains my poorly written posts a bit better. My references were always to Cancun and I could not care less about Jamaica, Cuba and the lot.
Hey Matt, How is my boy Rooney doing this season? Keep track of this Dean guy but maybe you are better off heading to Tabasco. Most of the hurricanes in the past BUT NOT ALL OF THEM - HELLO WILMA seem to veer off to the north at the last minute and just dump a ton of water on Cancun. The City does a good job of keeping it safe. The hotel zone is evacuated if it seems a hit is imminent. Sales of booze stop so you better load up now if you haven't already. They cut off the electricity from time to time to prevent fires I suppose. And the people really stick together for the most part, neighbors helping neighbors, etc. Some looting but nothing like a good old fashioned USA smash and grab looting. There will be a strong military presence. I am excited and cannot wait. NOT ! ! Just be safe, amigo.
Ahh Ok I'm with you now, I thought you were referring to the current situation rather than what happens once it arrives here. Yeah hurricanes always slow when they hit land. Jamaica will slow it down before it speeds up once again over the warm water, then it will slow down once more as it makes landfall in the Yucatan.
Best way to track this phenomenon is by the www.nhc.noaa.gov it is the national hurricane center. The trajectory cones show where it MIGHT hit. At a meeting with the nauticos of cancun, and my sister at the swiss consulate with the municipal hurricane commitee, the latest official information says that it all depends on how and where it hits Jamaica. There is a 33% probability that it does come to the state (not sure direct to Cancun yet) The phenomenons path has been changing in between Cancun and under Cozumel or directly to Cozumel (that is the eye). There are 3 different paths it may take. If it hits Jamaica directly it may change its course north due to the Jamaican mountain system, if it hits Jamaica on the southwest or passes it to the south, it will most likely come to the state, and if it hits the eastern side of Jamaica it may drastically change its direction to the Yucatan channel (between Cuba and Cape Catoche). It seems that if it does become a cat.5 it is not going to be even close in size to Wilma. The sites of official info in Mexico are, http://cgpmm.sct.gob.mx wich is the official site of the Secretaria de comunicaciones y transportes, in charge of all ports. Also http:smn.cna.gob.mx wich is the National Water and Meteorological national services. If it does come it will be about 8 to 9 hours of hurricane winds, it will slow down its wind velocity to a probable force 1 as soon as its arms of conectivity start to hit the state. About the Telmex lines protect with plastic wherever the line comes in the house, and also the phone jack. Hope this info helps.
Latest track estimate update of 6 minutes ago puts it landing a LOT further South, between Tulum and Chetumal. That's certainly good news for Cancun. We'd just get a lot of wind and rain but nothing destructive.
I certainly hope so, as that will mean I dont have to put on my reporter hat and run round like Indiana Jones again, like last time. Where you getting this info Drew? got a link?
Hey T.J, Rooney has bust his foot again and is out for a while. I've decided to stay in town and weather it out. Was actually talking about you today with Steven at Cub Sandwich. Keep up the random forecasting Steve, you're Cancun's answer to Ian Macaskill!
