Hurricane Gustav!

Discussion in 'Cancun Forum' started by EngineerGuy, Aug 26, 2008.

  1. EngineerGuy

    EngineerGuy I can choose my own title Registered Member

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    Looks like cancun is going to see some of this by sunday, not a direct hit by any means, which is good, but certainly some wind and rain for sure! Hopefully it stays further east which it looks like it will from the projected outlook, but still, cancun will get some type of a hit.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5day#contents

    [​IMG]
     
  2. TammieCat

    TammieCat Newbie Registered Member

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    Huricane Gustav

    There is a high on the other side of Florida. If it dissapates, the huricane will turn north. (please make the high go away) I fly out from Texas next Wednesday and watching closely. Seems to be picking up speed. Maybe a fast mover.
     
  3. BrianL

    BrianL Guest

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    its gonna be really close..... Most think this is gonna end up being a category 4/5,,, and if it doesn't hit cancun, its gonna hit somewhere on the gulf just as strong..

    GUSTAV CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
    HAITI...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 325/8. TRACK MODEL
    GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
    VERY SOON AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
    LOCATED OVER FLORIDA. THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN
    THE MODELS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS
    MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH KEEPS GUSTAVE
    MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
    GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS WEAKEN THE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWS FOR A
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW
    NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/HWRF SCENARIO AND IS A
    LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

    CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE
    CENTER REACHES MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
    HAITI. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING GUSTAV'S PASSAGE OVER
    LAND...AND SINCE IT IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM IT COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE
    MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW. THEREAFTER...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
    WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH FAVORS
    STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BELOW THAT OF THE GFDL...
    BUT IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE HWRF.




    And also, not to scare people.. but this is what a model shows



    [​IMG]


    A 908 MB major hurricane right off the coast of the Yukatan...

    Scary situation.
     
  4. RiverGirl

    RiverGirl Guest

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    Steve has gotten the Hurricane Cancun web site out of storage. Local bloggers will be posting updates on Hurricane Gustav there: http://hurricanecancun.com/
     
  5. trigger2002

    trigger2002 Guest

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    Doesnt look good this one!
     
  6. BrianL

    BrianL Guest

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    Actually... its not looking that bad right now for Cancun.

    Every early model tonight has it missing it...


    [​IMG]
     
  7. trigger2002

    trigger2002 Guest

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    Yea looks like its just going to be a wet old one for cancun the only thing is they got it as being a cat 3 when it passes this will cause some beach erosion even with the outter bands. got a horrible feeling this ones heading for new orleons
     
  8. EngineerGuy

    EngineerGuy I can choose my own title Registered Member

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    downgraded to a tropical storm! At least on the NOAA website!
     
  9. jen***

    jen*** Guest

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    Even if a hurricane passes through the channel between Cuba and Yucatan it doesn't mean we will feel even a flutter. Ivan passed through us like that and whilst we were locked away safe at home it wasn't the slightest bit windy. This one is closer to Cuba than Ivan was so it's likely we will be fine. What looks like a close distance on the map is actually very far.
     
  10. trigger2002

    trigger2002 Guest

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    Its weakened somewhat from hitting the high land in Haiti disrupting its circulation but it will be out in open water shotly unfortunatly that means gaining strength.
     
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