Looks like cancun is going to see some of this by sunday, not a direct hit by any means, which is good, but certainly some wind and rain for sure! Hopefully it stays further east which it looks like it will from the projected outlook, but still, cancun will get some type of a hit. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5day#contents
Huricane Gustav There is a high on the other side of Florida. If it dissapates, the huricane will turn north. (please make the high go away) I fly out from Texas next Wednesday and watching closely. Seems to be picking up speed. Maybe a fast mover.
its gonna be really close..... Most think this is gonna end up being a category 4/5,,, and if it doesn't hit cancun, its gonna hit somewhere on the gulf just as strong.. GUSTAV CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 325/8. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST VERY SOON AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER FLORIDA. THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH KEEPS GUSTAVE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS WEAKEN THE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/HWRF SCENARIO AND IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING GUSTAV'S PASSAGE OVER LAND...AND SINCE IT IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM IT COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW. THEREAFTER...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH FAVORS STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BELOW THAT OF THE GFDL... BUT IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE HWRF. And also, not to scare people.. but this is what a model shows A 908 MB major hurricane right off the coast of the Yukatan... Scary situation.
Steve has gotten the Hurricane Cancun web site out of storage. Local bloggers will be posting updates on Hurricane Gustav there: http://hurricanecancun.com/
Actually... its not looking that bad right now for Cancun. Every early model tonight has it missing it...
Yea looks like its just going to be a wet old one for cancun the only thing is they got it as being a cat 3 when it passes this will cause some beach erosion even with the outter bands. got a horrible feeling this ones heading for new orleons
Even if a hurricane passes through the channel between Cuba and Yucatan it doesn't mean we will feel even a flutter. Ivan passed through us like that and whilst we were locked away safe at home it wasn't the slightest bit windy. This one is closer to Cuba than Ivan was so it's likely we will be fine. What looks like a close distance on the map is actually very far.
Its weakened somewhat from hitting the high land in Haiti disrupting its circulation but it will be out in open water shotly unfortunatly that means gaining strength.
