Umm... Hmm. I need to point something out. Statistical modeling when the numbers which go into the model aren't that reliable... Well, I'm sure you've heard of "Garbage In, Garbage Out" right? Going to the Johns Hopkins link, I found the below numbers, right there: 407,485 total "cases" 18,227 total deaths and then doing what you always do to get a percentage Does indeed yield the aforementioned ~4.4%. But, there literally is no way to know the true number of total cases, as there's no way to get everyone tested - there's not that many testing kits, even if they are struggling to pump them out by the thousands. Some people get infected and show no signs at all, so they're not figured into the above "total cases" in any way that I could find.... so right there, the ~4.4% is off by some number, i.e. it's too high a number, because the deaths are way more concrete as people who've died are found and can be counted for the vast majority - where people who are infected but don't get sick in anyway aren't/can't get reported. A simple geometric progression, just straight up epidemical studies talk about this, if 1 person infects 2 people a day, and those 2 each infect 2 more each successive day....it doesn't take long for the total number of ... I think the word I remember is "exposures" to be Way up there, way over the ~400K figure. So, in my opinion, the simple division to get the fatality percentage rate is just "too simple." Check this out: Two Reasons the Worst-Case Scenarios for COVID-19 Seem Unrealistic Three federal public health officials—Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; H. Clifford Lane, the institute's deputy director for clinical research and special projects; and Robert Redfield, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)—struck a similar note in a New England Journal of Medicine commentary last month: "If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1 percent." Three folks who seem to be in a position to both Know, as well as Know What They Are Doing. So, actually below 1%, perhaps way below 1%, and nobody will be able to tell until it is mostly through, looks like. Like trying to predict what the upcoming flu season is going to be like, based on previous year's numbers - which end up as being guesses because so many people don't get reported.