Earliest Time Frame For Safest Booking Post Coronavirus....?

Umm... Hmm. I need to point something out. Statistical modeling when the numbers which go into the model aren't that reliable... Well, I'm sure you've heard of "Garbage In, Garbage Out" right?

Going to the Johns Hopkins link, I found the below numbers, right there:

407,485 total "cases"

18,227 total deaths

and then doing what you always do to get a percentage Does indeed yield the aforementioned ~4.4%. But, there literally is no way to know the true number of total cases, as there's no way to get everyone tested - there's not that many testing kits, even if they are struggling to pump them out by the thousands.

Some people get infected and show no signs at all, so they're not figured into the above "total cases" in any way that I could find.... so right there, the ~4.4% is off by some number, i.e. it's too high a number, because the deaths are way more concrete as people who've died are found and can be counted for the vast majority - where people who are infected but don't get sick in anyway aren't/can't get reported.

A simple geometric progression, just straight up epidemical studies talk about this, if 1 person infects 2 people a day, and those 2 each infect 2 more each successive day....it doesn't take long for the total number of ... I think the word I remember is "exposures" to be Way up there, way over the ~400K figure. So, in my opinion, the simple division to get the fatality percentage rate is just "too simple."

Check this out:

Two Reasons the Worst-Case Scenarios for COVID-19 Seem Unrealistic

Three federal public health officials—Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; H. Clifford Lane, the institute's deputy director for clinical research and special projects; and Robert Redfield, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)—struck a similar note in a New England Journal of Medicine commentary last month: "If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1 percent."

Three folks who seem to be in a position to both Know, as well as Know What They Are Doing. So, actually below 1%, perhaps way below 1%, and nobody will be able to tell until it is mostly through, looks like. Like trying to predict what the upcoming flu season is going to be like, based on previous year's numbers - which end up as being guesses because so many people don't get reported.

 

Yep, less than 1% in USA is what we believe as well, no "restrictions" by Easter Sunday is the goal of the President of the USA, and Mexico will probably follow fast there after if things are under control. Bring on early June please. Find it interesting that Desire resorts are closed and they moved them to TTR.. probably for the short term before TTR has to close. But if a bunch of people request that the sky bar roof top cater to that crowd then it could be literally the best of both worlds..

 

But damn Steve, we already cancelled and rebooked for June.
We were prompted by Southwest Airlines contacting us and telling us that our flights were going to be cancelled.
I hope you are correct with the herd mentality strategy comment.

 

Well that's all good and gravy, but you do realize that 1% of the US population is 3 million people right? 1% doesn't sound like a lot when looked at as 1--but that 1 represents millions of people. I don't think too many are anxious to sign up for those kind of numbers. Even though Italy bungled their quarantine, its shown that shutting it down for a month of two will cause it to peak. Having everyone go back out in 3 weeks is just going to put us back at square one of having it spread unchecked through the population. I live in NY, we have 20k+ reported cases, plus the thousands of unreported and are spreading it around the country. It doesn't seem like things are ready to back to normal just yet, no matter how much Trump wants it to.

 

I dont think he has said once its getting back to normal before July August, he wants people back working Easter Sunday. That seems long enough but still waiting and seeing is the strategy.

Great post Steve, Thank you.. i agree and think your "bet" will turn out to be pretty close to reality (WE HOPE)

 

Thanks Steve for posting that, i was just trying to figure out how to post that info from the PM you sent us.. but i was being technologically challenged. LOL Great info.. only better idea is to have that in another area easily found on your home page.

 

This would be great in a sticky

 

He was on Fox today and stated he wanted to open everything up by Easter because the economy couldn’t handle a long term shutdown.