Didn't Cumo just come out and say that in New York everything is shut down, people have no where to go, and yet a majority of the new cases are from people who were actually staying at home as well? If that is the case then what are we doing this for? Life can't go on with everyone at home, we are going to have to take some risk.
I hereby dub thee: Captain Assumption. Yes... it's like there might be an agenda there, just maybe. Steve, I'm not going to quote your long read, but it was illustrative. Does anyone else sort of feel like that the "experts" are sort of like the nerd guys that never got the girl, never got a public "Atta Boy!" Now is their time to shine in the sun... Not all of them of course. But it certainly seems like it comes off as being really smart to have "a predictive model," and the like. Shoot, as Steve said, though I did know what an epidemiologist was more than a week ago, I'm definitely amateur... I just got off the phone with a buddy who lives in Iowa City, who said that, since they live in a hot zone (don't even know how that's defined) they've not been allowed into a restaurant since mid-March... but the local Home Depot is the busiest he's ever seen it, including Christmas season. He didn't get into a breakdown of the age groups, to check if a lot of 65+ folks were out or if it was just younger types, or if everyone was, or all of them weren't, wearing masks... just that it was very busy. It makes me scratch my head.
Enjoyed your schooling. Was aware of these events, but did not know the same adviser “expert” was involved. The science of Global Warming started in UK. Hockey Stick. The 2008 global financial crisis I believe was sparked by a English trader. Now we have this English expert advising the U.K. and I believe also influenced other countries. No judgment just information. Since WWII the UK has lost many of its colonies to independence, however it appears it has not lost its influence. FYI , I am a former British Subject. It appears “Britannia might still rule “
Yeah I read the Cuomo statements. It didn't make much sense, and what he was saying with regard to him being surprised was confusing. If might have been the way the article was written, or it's just hard to write up a solid story these days with so much double-talk. I don't know why it's so hard for people/politicians to just be like: "We made these decisions because we didn't know, and thought it was smart at the time, and now we are making some changes and new decisions. We were kind of wrong, and we might be kind of wrong again, but we are trying our best to make logical decisions, and we are trying and able to adapt and think of the fly as we go." That seems easy to me, and an effective form of communication. I for one would find a message like that more comforting. It's just always hard with politicians. For example: 4 years ago you said "this" with such conviction. Move to 4 years later (we a new backer or a new plan) and they act like what they said before wasn't said, and what they say now is the 100% truth. How can anyone ever believe anyone that flip flops so hard so often. It's all just a game. I get it's a hard job, and you have to sway, but it goes to the extreme far too often. In my area in PA, we just got the word that still shutdown to June 4th. But this letter paints a different picture. (attachment added below)
My buddy is an independent contractor, and luckily he's not out of work because his two main project houses are empty. He sends pictures like every other day for weeks now of Lowes and Home Depot (in two different locations 15 miles apart, and the parking lots are PACKED every day, at all times during the day. The people in the stores aren't contractors, they are regular people of all age groups.
Is there any way to post the letter a little cleaner, it's hard to read? Average age of deaths is 79? Wow!
I think we’re being too hard on the experts. As a guy who builds models for a living, we always give ranges and probabilities. For economic considerations we’ll give the most likely case. The truth is my team and I would be ‘wrong’ almost all the time if you look at the result and the most likely case. But we make a lot of money for the company by being able to get close enough. What we often see in media are the extremes and unlikely endpoints. More and more I find that the real experts are being drown out by media ‘experts’. Experts often an agenda. I could model average Boobs Cruise attendance by month for Steve. I would provide him with a expected range of attendees. In creating that range the model would include the endpoints of 0 attendees and sellout; neither case is likely. Steve knows his business, and uses the likely projections. His competitor finds the model and makes an announcement that there is low attendance ‘possibly zero’ projected in a given month. Or his fans saying possible high attendance, possibly sellouts. Neither statement is false, just not particularly accurate. When neither comes to pass it doesn’t make me wrong, nor does it mean my models were incorrect. In policy around public health they always tend to go to the high end, and unfortunately the ranges may be large due to unknowns. If I’m responsible for buying masks, and models show I’ll likely need between 5000-30000 per week with an average of 24000... truth is I’m likely to buy 35000 or more. I can’t afford to be wrong.
Thanks, it's hard to imagine that we are in total lock down, after looking at those stats. Average of death is 79 with 84% having at least one comorbidity.
I get what your saying, but that's how we end up with shortages, and panic. Everyone is in C.Y.A mode, and not just here, but globally. It's also not as if EVERYONE can just say I might only need an average of 2400, but I'm going to order 35,000, because there just isn't the supply. Tons of complaints of not enough PPE, but nobody has ever talked about the production side of PPE's. Who makes them, how many in a given year, and what is the normal surplus? It's as if governors, mayors, leaders of people think these things are just going to magically appear as soon as the request order is made. So we end up with 50 governors ordering 35,000 when they only needed 24,000, and the news doesn't care about the truth of the story, just the story, so <insert name of person you feel you can blame the most> sell the story, and repeat, repeat, repeat.
