Well, RG et al: Will it cut down on some of the Miami mafia human trafficking activity in the area? http://www.thenews.com.mx/home/tnhome.asp?cve_home=512
I don't think it will make much of a difference. It seems that over land to Texas would still be more likely successful than by water. They risk deportation either way under the new plan. The question is which countries government would be easier to get around. The real answer in my opinion is more communication between the US and Cuba to at the very least work on solutions to the immigration problem.
Communication between Cuba and the U.S.???? Ya think?? That might just work! (Not being sarcastic to you Jason but to those who think that 55 + years of NO communication WILL work.)
Jim - Short answer "yes," it will help and will probably help a lot. The change won't make the problem go away. But it I imagine it will keep the problem from escalating, as it's been doing the last few years, and may diminish the problem. Before this new accord Mexico had a wet foot/dry foot law regarding Cubans, similar to the law the US has (which I completely disagree with!!). If Cubans were found in the water they were sent back to Cuba. If Cubans were found on land they were held and then given a 30-day permit which gave them enough time to get to the US border. Cubans entering the US via land, meaning from Mexico (and I presume from Canada), are given permission to enter the US legally. So that's a HUGE incentive for Cubans to keep trying to cross Mexico. With this new accord, it will be riskier for anyone crossing Mexico, but I'm certain many will still try to cross. Doubtless the human smuggling mafia will adapt. They will take some time, but they will find a new strategy. They might try giving ill-gotten (faked or stolen) Mexican immigration docs (FM-Ts or FM-3s) to the Cubans they are smuggling. They might also raise their prices for smuggling Cubans to the US land border. Certainly this law will lower the number of Cubans who are willing to risk crossing Mexico via land. For those who do decide to cross (and for the people smuggling them) the risks will be higher. I thought that this quote was interesting: Cuba is the only country that I know of that ever refuses to take it's citizens back when they are deported or (voluntarily/forcibly) returned from another country. In general I have not heard of Cuba refusing to take back wet-foot Cubans caught trying enter and cross Mexico. The Cubans I've heard of being denied entry are ones that were booted out of the US for some legal problem. There have been cases of Cubans with both US legal problems and Mexican immigration problems who were returned to Cuba from Mexico only to have Cuba deny them entry. These cases make the airlines NUTS, because the passenger goes back and forth on planes having both countries say "get lost."
I am kind of baffled by the idea that this will somehow lessen the "smuggling mafia" activity. If the Cubans can no longer request permission to pass to the North thru Mexican immigration, and to the contrary will be more likely to be sent back (and imprisoned), wouldn't they be MORE likely to need the services of the people smugglers? As they would not only have to be smuggled out of Cube but now smuggled thru Mexico as well, without the option to try and legally pass thru and now the smugglers will have reason to charge higher fees and be more violent since their "cargo" is no longer relatively easy to move thru Mexico.... Just my thoughts on it....
Life - I think this new agreement will put more pressure on the smuggling system. It will make the price of smuggling higher. The only thing it has going for it is that it is one more deterrent. Some Cubans may decide it's not worth the risk now, where before they would take the chance. The real problem is the US policy which rewards Cubans who arrive by land but turns away Cubans who arrive by water. This encourages Cubans to cross Mexico; there is huge incentive to hire a smuggler and use illegal channels to cross Mexico. And make no mistake, the family members already in the US are usually the ones paying the smugglers. Imho if the US thinks Castro is a tyrant and communism is bad then they should just transport Cubans directly by plane or boat. That way the Cubans would at least be given safe passage and no smugglers would get paid. You either want to help Cubans or you don't. The US law rewards illegal transit across Mexico and encourages a huge illegal network of smugglers. A couple of facts. Cubans need a VISA to get in to Mexico. In fact to get that VISA they need to pay a bond of several thousand USD. Cubans also need permission from their own government to leave Cuba (which they get if they have their destination country VISAs in order). So the Cubans coming to Mexico in boats are literally sneaking out of the country. And they do not have permission to be in Mexico legally. Before this new accord Cubans who were caught in Mexico (dry foot) were held and then were given Salida Definitiva, which is not a VISA and it's not permission to be in Mexico, it's a letter telling them that they have 30 days to get out. Of course this amounts to permission to cross Mexico legally and go to the US...but technically it's a letter kicking them out... Cubans who were caught in the water (wet foot) were held longer (usually 90 days) and then were deported, usually by what's called Repatriación but sometimes by Expulsión. The difference being that Expulsión carries a time out of the country charge (you must be out for 5 or 10 or 20 years before you can return). Repatriación does not carry a time out of the country, or if it does it's short, two weeks or something. The new accord means that all Cubans caught in the water or on land will be sent back to Cuba after spending some amount of time (between 30 and 90 days is likely) in a Mexican Immigration jail. No fun. And then they will be returned to a country they snuck out of illegally. No fun either. I think Immigration in Mexico is largely happy with the new rules. The old rules were wasting lots of time. INM would round up Cubans in Mexico knowing full well that those people would just be released back into Mexico later. What's the point of feeding the detainees and doing that mountain of paperwork if they are just going to let them go anyway? This way all Cubans will get the same treatment, harsh as it is, and will be sent back to Cuba. For INM this is cleaner, though still not ideal. What would be ideal would be if the US would get over itself and take responsibility for the fact that it has a law on its books which is almost single-handedly keeping an entire human smuggling mafia in business. In short, I agree with you, the law won't stop the Cubans from coming, but it probably will slow some of the movement down through deterrence. * Note * I'm told, though I don't remember reading, that the new accord carries with it a promise to speed up the deportation process for Cubans. So they probably won't be held more than 30 days. That would be much better for everyone. Mexican immigration will need to use fewer resources to do their job and the Cubans will suffer less time in jail.
Thanks for the clarification Rivergirl, I admit that the wet/dry foot law has never made any since to me, and I don't know what the circumstances surrounding its creation were, but I agree that it seems to cause a lot of deaths and organized crime. Unfortunately, I think its just another one of those stupid laws in the US that will never get changed to something that actually makes sense. I've always heard that upon returning to Cuba that the people are jailed for leaving, do you have any details as to what level of validity that has to it?
INM here has a high number of Cuban "re-offenders" if you will, people who are caught, returned to Cuba and then caught again. So if these people are jailed upon their return to Cuba it's not for long periods of time. But I do not know if they face short amounts of jail time, maybe. I understand that if you leave Cuba with a child in tow then you WILL be jailed if returned to Cuba, because taking a child with you puts the child in mortal risk, so it's child endangerment.
WILL SOMEONE PLEASE ENLIGHTEN ME? This is my first post on this board. From what I have read and heard it seems like the 4,000 or so deaths this year are 99.9% from one criminal killing another criminal. Is this correct? I have heard of little or no collateral damage to innocent civilians. Didn't 4 guys waste someone coming down the steps of Sabor Latino and only spilled the blood of the criminal. My main question is this? What is wrong with criminals killing criminals, especially in large numbers. Isn't it possible this is a good thing?
