Tropical cyclone potential

Discussion in 'Living in Cancun' started by V, Oct 21, 2012.

  1. V

    V I can choose my own title Registered Member

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    Something is brewing in the central Caribbean, right now. NOAA says it has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone, at this time.

    It will probably track northwest, and miss us, but it's worth keeping an eye on: I suppose we've all grown a little complacent this year, having had a quite hurricane season, so far.

    National Hurricane Center
     
  2. V

    V I can choose my own title Registered Member

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    The area of unstable weather covers almost the entire Caribbean. We are just now seeing the first effects of it, with rains and overcast skies.

    The forecast can be read here-

    Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
     
  3. gabesz

    gabesz Addict Registered Member

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    There are two depressions out there. Right now one looks like it will head into the North Atlantic and not near Mexico. The second one looks like it may get to Jamaica and then head north to Cuba and points north.

    Both do not currently show any major growth or worries for Cancun at this point.
     
  4. V

    V I can choose my own title Registered Member

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    This storm is being referred to as "invest 99L". As I understand it, invest simply means resources are being invested to monitor and track developments.

    It's about 7 PM tonight, and we have gusty winds, and no rain, at the moment.

    Best guesses seem to be that this storm, should it develop into a tropical cyclone, will track north, and not towards Cancun.

    Tropics Watch: Eyes on Caribbean System - weather.com
     
  5. V

    V I can choose my own title Registered Member

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    Invest 99L has hardly moved in the last 12 hours, but is now given an 80% chance of further development.

    National Hurricane Center

    And, Gabesz, you're right, all early guesses as to which way this storm will move are to the north, or northwest.
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    Last edited: Oct 22, 2012
  6. V

    V I can choose my own title Registered Member

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    This disturbance is now given a 90% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone and, in spite of what has been said in the forecasts, the net movement of "storm center" in the last 24 hours has been due west, towards Nicaragua and Honduras. Those who've been watching will remember this storm was directly south of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, yesterday.

    This strikes me as of potential concern to those in Quintana Roo and Belize.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    When you open this link, move your cursor over the red, checked area to see the short version forecast offered by the National Hurricane Center. They continue to predict movement to the north, once the storm gets organized.
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    Last edited: Oct 22, 2012
  7. V

    V I can choose my own title Registered Member

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    Well, things are moving fast in relation to this storm: it's now been upgraded to a tropical depression.

    Here's the latest update-

    Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN

    Oddly, in light of the forecast northward movement, the storm is now even further west than it was earlier today.
     
  8. Steve

    Steve Administrator Owner

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  9. V

    V I can choose my own title Registered Member

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    Absolutely, Steve, if it tracks as predicted. The oddity is that it´s tracked, thus far, due west, in spite of the predictions. I´ve got a lot of confidence in modern weather forecasting, it´s just puzzling why it´s moved as far west as it has, and continues to do.
     
  10. Steve

    Steve Administrator Owner

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    It seems everything has been pulled West this summer, probably explains why the UK got Greenland's summer!
     
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