Netanyahu cannot get sufficient support from within his own cabinet for a new, "red line", so he brings his message to the U.S. public, hoping to put pressure on the President to acquiesce to his demands. The red line the President has drawn is to say we will never permit Iran to possess a nuclear weapon. The implication is clear, that we will attack, if it appears they have made a decision to build a nuclear weapon. Experts have said that it would take a year to a year and a half to assemble a nuclear weapon, once Iran has produced enough fuel for one and decides to go ahead with building one: nations that have done it know that this is a correct estimate. The time frame stretches out even further, following a decision to build a nuclear weapon, if the developer runs into any technical problems along the way. Even Israel security admits there is no evidence that Iran has made such a decision. Meanwhile, President Obama has had more success tightening the screws on Iran through sanctions than any leader, at any time in the past. Even those who oppose the sanctions, such as China, have reduced their purchases of Iranian crude, as a result of U.S. pressure. Saudi Arabia, the only country in the world with excess production capacity, has dramatically increased their production to offset the loss of Iranian crude from the world's markets. The EU launched their own set of new sanctions July of this year, denying Iranian shipping companies the ability to deliver much of their crude by limiting access to the international insurance required of ships that wish to enter ports. The President has been resolute in this matter, tightening the noose on Iran, gaining international cooperation, refusing to bow to Netanyahu's demands and doing everything possible to keep us from plunging into another war in the middle east, this one with the potential of going nuclear. Americans have been through this before, hearing how dangerous some country was, how near it was to having nuclear weapons, etc., only to find the threat was hollow. Managing the new threat, that of Iran, in a way that avoids war, if possible, is clearly the prudent path, and the way the President has chosen.
V, I'm not sure how you can define what Obama has done as success. Iran is apparently still working on the bomb and will have it within the next few years. Now do we, or anyone in the civilized world really want that to happen? If we are to believe that the sanctions are really working on Iran, then how can they send troops and munitions to Syria? Iran is the biggest threat to all of the world and Obama's head in the sand attitude is accomplishing nothing but to delay the inevitable.
In the last year, oil exports, on which the government of Iran depends, have dropped by half; and, in the same period, the value of their currency has fallen from 9,000 rials to the dollar to the current 25,000 to the dollar. Both the government of Iran and the people of Iran have suffered from both. Sanctions which target banks which deal with Iran have made it much harder for Iran to get paid for the oil it does manage to export, leading them to make barter deals for palm oil, for cooking, for example, in exchange for Iranian oil. Iran will need to produce enough enriched uranium to make a bomb, then decide whether they truly want to risk being attacked for making the fateful decision to proceed to building a weapon from it. The U.S. is ready to attack, if it proves necessary, and the 27 nation maneuvers that are now occuring in the Persian Gulf, complete with two U.S. aircraft carrier groups, is meant to let everyone interested know that we can, if Iran takes the wrong decision, at some point in the future. An attack on Iran will be an extremely costly operation and could, like the conflict in Iraq, produce a war of attrition that could last for years. Iraq and Iran lost one million killed in their war. We would not like to have numbers of dead like that again, if it can be avoided.
I question whether the thought of a million dead weighs on the ayatollahs. They routinely send the young to blow themselves up as their ultimate redemption. If they can destroy the "Great Satan" then, in their minds it will be worth it. So far the sanctions have not deterred the Iranian government from it's current course regardless of the cost to their people. A course that will lead to the destruction of Israel and the US is the only road that the ayatollahs see and its cost is irrelevant. Like you I do not want to see another war, but if there is to be one, let it be before they have the bomb, not after!
Is this going to be another Carter special where he tried to negotiate rather than back the Shaw of Iran? Look at what Iran is now 30+ years later. I see the same thing in Egypt, which is now under much worse leadership than we had before. At the rate the middle east is going we will eventually be at war with Iran and they will have no problem selling nucks to Libia, Egypt and other countries in the area. They have made it clear that they want all countries to be muslim or destroy them. They have no intentions of living at peace. If anyone reads the koran they will see that you do not live in peace with muslims, they destroy you. As far as the oil situation we have enough to be self reliant. It is awful selfish of us to say it is okay to have other countrys affect their environment but not in our country. Sounds like Ted Kennedy who wanted wind energy but said NOT in my backyard.
Lets be honest here. If Israel decides to put an end to the Iranian nuclear program, they will at their own timing. Not one cabinet member in Israel will say no to that. The only think holding them back right now is the US, but truthfully they will act when they want to and tell the US to take a hike and watch from the sidelines like we always do when Israel decides to take matters into their own hands. Remember their hostage rescue in Entebbe? They told the US about it once the hostages were on the way home. They do not care about how we feel in the US or anywhere else. They protect their land and if you do not like it tough.
The full range of sanctions imposed on Iran are starting to bite: Ahmajinedad has now acknowledged as much, saying the government is now experiencing severe budgetary problems. Iran budget under pressure, Ahmadinejad says | Reuters It was inevitable that they would, following the additional sanctions which were imposed on Iranian companies by the EU, in July. The U.S. is now considering even more, and harsher sanctions, which have not been imposed, up to now, because of the hardships sanctions place on the citizens; but, this is our best shot at avoiding another war in the region, if the Iranian Government can be turned from its not terribly well hidden object of becoming a nuclear state.
