Earliest Time Frame For Safest Booking Post Coronavirus....?

Yikes, that’s a bold statement spoken as an absolute.
I think the majority of people might be on the extreme end of panic and concern, based on this statement you might be at the opposite and just as extreme end of the situation. Young, healthy people are dying. Not just the old or those with some comorbidity. I’m not getting involved in the conversation other than to say be safe and smart. This is very real and can be very deadly to a certain portion of the population, however small that turns out to be.

 

Bold statement based on reality. Not fear mongering.

here is directly from the CDC which shows your statement that young and healthy people are dying from this to be inaccurate ... people 55 and older make up over 99% of all deaths

“.....outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, <1% among persons aged 20–54 years, and no fatalities among persons aged ≤19 years.”

 

Sounds like what you need is a histogram of the age distribution by fatalities. If I can credible data, ill make one for you.

Edit: found one: covid19-data/covid19-data, doesn't contain age data

 

Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19

the whole report mentioned above for anyone interested. It’s a weekly report. Graphs are at the bottom.

 

Cant believe I got sucked into this but i cant resist ha, what do I have to lose? Except you or John running numbers on me ...

If it was based on reality you wouldn't be saying 'Me personally, none would kill me...' as yes people have died in their teens, 20s, 30s and 40s. So while your personal chances are very, very small, you dont have a 0% chance And yes underlying conditions play a role but not all have underlying conditions. You seem to have shifted from the chance is small to not at all. But since you are looking at SELF and not OTHERS I will apply some of the numbers to myself.

Numbers are skewed by all sorts of variables (how we count number of cases for example) so take the actual numbers below like a grain of salt. But as a type 1 diabetic, and with a daughter as a type 1 diabetic, I happened to be looking up death rates by a number of factors to help me decide how strict we should be with our social distancing (i.e for us does this mean never leave the house or it is ok to go to the grocery store with my mask and hand wipes )

In conclusion I dont like those 9.2% diabetic DEATH odds even if you come at me with reasons it really should be lower (people not showing up in case counts or cross referencing with age or variables such as level of control within the condition itself). So I would appreciate it if you help the rest of us in making this thing go away sooner rather than later. Because although it is extremely unlikely, but possible, YOU personally will die. It is very much possible OTHERS will if you pass the virus. I think my math works there???

Age of Coronavirus Deaths
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old

8.0%
60-69 years old

3.6%
50-59 years old

1.3%
40-49 years old

0.4%
30-39 years old

0.2%
20-29 years old

0.2%
10-19 years old

0.2%
0-9 years old

no fatalities

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by agegroup.


Pre-existing medical conditions (comorbidities)
Patients who reported no pre-existing ("comorbid") medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%. Pre-existing illnesses that put patients at higher risk of dying from a COVID-19 infection are:

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
Cardiovascular disease
13.2%
10.5%
Diabetes
9.2%
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
8.0%
6.3%
Hypertension
8.4%
6.0%
Cancer
7.6%
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions

0.9%
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by condition.

 

Great post, Kyle.

I admit confusion about the article you quoted's disclaimer at the end: "*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by condition."

What does that even mean? "The percentages do not have to add up to 100%...) Does that seem weird to anyone else? Why would you "show" something as a percentage (which to me is supposed to represent a fraction of a total as set out in hundreths), so why use or call it a percentage at all if you're going to make up rules as to how the reader is to read your numbers?

Stay at home y'all, it's only March 27. Easter is still two weeks away. Data on all these numbers, quite a few of which are admittedly imaginary/guesses are continuing to pour in to the CDC, WHO, NIH and the research facilities are doing what they do.

It seems weird that Stacia & I are able to almost have vacation in our back yard though. It's been upwards of 85F with sunshin the past two days. Just can't have anyone else over to hang out with.

 

At this time, even though we're personally healthy, we take little comfort in mortality and comorbidity statistics, models or graphs ... whether or not they are lagging indicators or predictive. Irrespective of the data sources, there is a saying, "Figures can lie, and liars can figure." At risk of being accused as preachy (again/still), it's not a time to panic. It's simply time for everyone to rally together and keep doing our best to reduce the spread... whether that means working on a frontline in an essential service, or sheltering in place/physical social distancing, which for most of us means treading water in our respective fishbowls, doing our best in adapting to difficult circumstances during this crisis, and thinking about what the new normal may be. At this time, what is the value of a who's right or who's wrong, polarizing debate about statistics or calculations, or armchair epidemiology. Indeed, everyone is entitled to their opinion, however, experts are saying this virus does not discriminate and they advise the recommended/required best practices. We hear accounts (no personal or private info) from our daughter (a frontline MD) about younger adult patients with no underlying health issues, now on ventilators... unfortunately defying the 'who's at risk' statistics. Another reality is not enough ventilators or personal protective equipment (PPE) for healthcare workers and first responders. She reminds our family to appreciate, that even asymptomatically, we could inadvertently pass along COVID-19 to someone less able to fight it off. Community spread remains the invisible beast, and does not seem to have 'spiked' yet. Where are all of these factors and variables taken into account in the calculus? As we leave this conversation, as an fyi, Canadians are getting an onslaught of TV and radio 'do's/don'ts' commercials by the Chief Pubic Health Officer of Canada about COVID-19. Also, attached is the flyer that the Canadian federal government recently mailed to every home. (note: 38C = 100.4F) As we look ahead to the sunnier days ahead, we wish our friends and everyone the best of health.

 

Good stuff, MandEOntario, as per usual.

 

They do not represent shares of death which would add up to 100%. They represent % chances of death if you fall into that category. If you want it to add up to 100 then the other side of the equation is for example... 9.6% chance of death with diabetes who have COVID-19. 90.4% chance of living with diabetes who have COVID-19. Applying to an age bracket... age 20-29... .2% chance of death who have COVID-19. 99.8% chance of living if in that age group who have COVID-19. So in a way I am agreeing that the chances are very, very small for certain demographics. But wanted to show the other side of the story with how the odds are not as good with others. It is like the college student on spring break saying hey i am good if i get corona i get corona. He doesn't care because he is looking at SELF... he only has a .2% chance of Death if he even gets COVID-19. A 99.8% of living if he gets COVID-19. Where as I have a 9.6% chance of death if i get COVID-19 but a 90.4% chance of living. End result is we all benefit by staying home and decreasing the spread. Hope that helps explain the numbers.

 

Great post as most of yours are. I wish god had given me the power T&B has to know I can not die from the virus. Till we meet again Jen and Kyle may you and all others stay safe.