Earliest Time Frame For Safest Booking Post Coronavirus....?

Yes, the statisticians on this forum are correct, the probability right now of someone dying from this virus is significantly smaller that 1%. 3.8 million US citizens probably are not going to die from coronovirus.
What the issue is... if someone contracts the virus there is a significantly higher of probability of death than if you have the flu. Mortality rates of course dependent on age, health, drug use, access to medical care etc.

and ... My favorite MMs are peanut butter (in blue).

 

Yesterday we were chatting with a couple who coincidentally, given the location of a few posting in this thread recently, live in Texas. They were bemoaning how the virus is cramping their style at home, the gym is closed, etc. To alleviate the boredom they were attending house parties, whether LS or not we didn't ask, it doesn't matter. For the people saying enough with the ecomonic impact, it's time to get back to work, are you willing to bet your life on it.

One of us is a repiratory therapist. Not an ecomonist, not a scientist, not a newly minted "web MD", not a lawyer, not a politician, just a front line health care worker who will have to help not only the purposefully careless and/or gamblers but also the unfortunate innocents, in large part due to the actions of the careless/gamblers. Decide your actions today or risk having a respiratory therapist decide for you and your loved ones.

A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients — ProPublica

Read and heed these five words, STAY THE FOCK HOME NOW.

 

Question: Can you point me to that statement somewhere in any of the online CV studies and official reporting websites? I didn't see that in any... I actually think the one I cited to above said it was like the flu and orders of magnitude less than 1%. But, that was yesterday, and my memory may be jacked up due tot he significantly higher intake of the 100 proof Bottled in Bond buorbon I did more than sample last night!

My own favorite is Green peanut...mmmmjm yummmyymmmyyymmmmm

 

I know, but we're talking if it was allowed to spread unabated. It would eventually end up infection the large majority of the population, which 1% of would be millions. Even if it only reached half the population, your talking 1.5 million dead. At the end of the day, when you have to do dirty job; the only thing worse than doing it--is having to do it twice. We try and rush back to the norm too quickly and cases will spike again and we will have to do this again; that would be a disaster. Might as well just ride it out and get it over with. This time next year, it'll be all about getting everyone vaccinated and no one will ever think about this again.

Yes, which is very much a possibility if nothing was done to stop the spread. I get things are taking a hit right now, people are losing a lot. But if we rush it to its conclusion, its going to fail and we'll have to do it all over again. Might as well do it right the first time, so it can be over.

 

Problem is its not going to be over until theres a vaccine. We love Temptation especially Halloween but you couldn't pay us to be there until a vaccine is made and widespread.

 

You cannot possible calculate an accurate mortality rate when you don’t know those actually infected. If you only go off “confirmed cases” then a large part of the population that had the virus where never factored into the equation thus creating an exaggerated mortality rate. There is not enough information currently available to know if it indeed is more deadly than the flu and no. The likelihood hood of you dying if you contract either is still completely dependent upon your own personal health. Not joking. 100 % serious. I bought m&ms at the store after reading all this. The peanut kind

 

Seeing as young, healthy people are dying, I think we can stop pretending it’s only old, decrepit people now. If you want to minimize the impact, please do so from your house. I’ll bet you’ll all be singing a different tune when someone you know gets admitted to the hospital.

 

We don't know the mortality rate of this virus yet. Until the full cycle is complete (active cases, recovered cases, deaths) that information cannot be compiled. And of course we don't have accurate stats when many cases aren't even tested. One could argue that a more accurate reality is total deaths/total recovered although obviously that is not correct either because of the lack of testing and many people have not had an outcome yet (death or recovery).
However let's play this game for a moment. The "mortality rate" of top 10 countries (total deaths/total recovered): Coronavirus Update (Live): 466,759 Cases and 21,148 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
China = 4.5%,
Italy = 80%,
USA = more deaths than have recovered,
Spain = 65%,
Germany = 5.8%,
Iran = 22%,
France 34%,
Switzerland = more deaths than recoveries,
UK = more deaths than recoveries,
S Korea = 3.4%
The numbers are all over the place depending on whatever point of the curve each country is on. My point is that there is no point in arguing about mortality rates at this time.

Flattening the curve is about lessening the impact on our hospitals. THIS is why physical distancing is recommended. This, in turn, will affect mortality rates.

Although most people only experience mild symptoms, we don't have any natural immunity or vaccinations to slow this down. Places that did not, or could not, use recommended precautions have been crushed by this when they hit the peak. Our healthcare systems are NOT equipped to deal with this! Let me say that again. We are not equipped! Unless we slow this down, we cannot manage the sudden influx of severe cases at our hospitals. We don't have enough ventilators, beds, healthcare providers or PPEs (personal protective equipment).

So as one of the people on the front line, all I ask is this: do your job and stay home. So I can go to work and do mine.

 

I apologize, I did my math wrong for the "mortality rates"
Good thing I'm just a healthcare worker and not a statistician.
And that my point was not about the mortality rates.