Earliest Time Frame For Safest Booking Post Coronavirus....?

But I really really like mm’s.
Especially the peanut ones.

 

And, it's interesting to read posts, such as my own, from a few days ago, to just the other day, then yesterday and see how fast this situation seems to be changing.



Just looking around at my local community... I agree with his assessment. As stated above, 1% of over 300 million folks is over 3,000,000 people.... so it's going to be a hard decision, either way it goes. Some people die and other people get back to "normal" lives? Ouch, there's no good, political direction to travel for anyone in the guvmint.

Knowing what I know about epidemiology, which is more than the average person but definitely a non-expert - I just found it very interesting in undergrad, the professor's paper from the U.K. referenced above by Steve makes a TON of sense, but, there too, there's no way to know for a couple more weeks, perhaps as much as a month. So, we'll have to see.

I did text with a gal who lives in NYC Stacia & I met in Cancun just last night, and she reported as stated above, that things seem to be horrible in NYC. I'm thinking that is probably because it IS NYC and everyone lives, sometimes quite literally, right on top of one another. Doesn't make it any less horrible for that...

I just want to go back to my favorite naked places in Cancun and see all (relatively speaking in my case) all my naked friends partying and having a genuine party naked time and not worrying at all about exchanges of biological materiel...

 

Exactly what my doc told me when I asked him a couple of weeks back. He did the thing where he quoted me how many people in the U.S. died last year due to the flu and complications thereffrom... and then asked me if I knew how many people had died in China so far... at that time it was less than 2,000.... it was interesting. Sad, too.

Makes me think the old saying, "Familiarity breeds contempt" is right on point. We're familiar with the flu, and we deal with it on an annual basis, and we know, vaguely, that it can kill people.... and we really don't do much of anything about it. But, give us the shiny, new, deadly super-ninja virus that dissolves the lungs and you'll catch it and die if you get it (media hype) and we all go a bit nuts...

I'm not saying it's not serious. I think the flu is serious, too. But...

 

Listening tot he science is a good thing. Listening to the economic is also a good thing. The trick is to balance the science against the economics so that, when we get out of the virus thing, we've got something left to come back to, I think.

how many people were living hand to mouth (even if making some good money) and when the shutdowns cut off their income streams they looked around and thought, "Well, shit. How do I pay my rent? How am I going to buy gas? Shoot, how am I going to buy food for my kids?" Just at my neighborhood dive bar across from Stacia & I's subdivision here in our Houston suburb, I personally know (those bartenders and waitstaff) of about 20 younger people in that category... that's what they do, all they know how to do (not getting into bad vs. good life decisions) and there's no way, in the current environment, to get a different way to make money... except for some not so good choices. It's already bad and it's getting worse with each passing day, much less week.

Just go take a look at your own account balances, figure out your total "nut" of bills each month, divide that out and think about how long you'd have...

As stated above, listen tot he science... but you'd better pay attention to your supply as well. Tough decisions coming.

 

Please don't make assumptions about me. They have been trying to kill me for years. No luck yet.

 

So you think it’s “logical” to shut down a country over a virus that has killed 500 people when you wouldn’t have done the same for a virus that kills 20,000 during the exact same time period ? Maybe it’s possible you haven’t heard all the “ health officials” and or “scientists” opinions on the issue. Proceed as you may friend.

 

I think one part of this analogy that is missing is the fact that: those 100 M&Ms (1 of which is poisonous) have been specially selected from over 2000 M&Ms. So really it's 2000+ -> 100 -> 1. Except people are only thinking about that 100 - 1 ratio, and not 2000+ - 1 (the 2000+ being the large sample of people that won't get it, already had it and didn't even know, or will be pretty much fine if they get it).

And the 2000+ referenced, is a completely unknown and made of variable here.

 

Are you suggest

You are basing a death rate based on what if the entire United States population became infected?

 

There’s 328 million Americans. So the bowl would have to have 328,000,000 M&ms. (Get a bigger bowl). Also this ignores that you may be part of the mass population that experience no to mild symptoms. So the reality is none of the m&ms could kill you personally based upon your personal health situation

 

The mortality rate that people are referring to which is currently hovering around 1% is based on those who are infected, not the entire population of the United States.