To me ‘focus’ on high risk people, that’s ambiguous. What is meant there? If people don’t lock down and it does spread then it’s an endemic and no vaccine. How does that help the 3+ percent at risk?
No plans to cancel as of now (we plan to go April 2-5). All we have booked are flights and still holding off on the resort booking in hopes that prices drop
Being extra careful around nursing homes, hospitals, rehab facilities, and the like. Where people at risk would tend to be in higher densities. How would you lock down the US, a country of 320 million people? How long would you do it for? What if people don't follow the lock down? Back to the original question: We have 4 trips planned to various locations (including TTR in May) from April through August. Planning on going unless travel is not allowed or airlines are cancelling flights.
That just doesn't work and its not a matter of my opinion. Unless you can show me a model where it does. Anything that models a RO >3.6 (Basic reproduction number) and without a vaccine, they're going to get sick. Italy is doing it now so is China. China is in the billions of people. That's why I go back and stress how important the containment effort is and shrugging it off and comparing it to the flu doesn't work. Im sure you want to go on those trips, I want to go on mine too. But its in our best interest to support the guidelines of the CDC. But you claimed this was all over blown and that if you're healthy its not a big deal. That's going to blow up in your face when people like me in the hot zones get sick, saying, well its just like a cold, while I spread a virus that no one has protection or vaccine for. I dont know where the messaging for this breaks down, but it has potential to be a big problem if we fail to contain it. That's when you'll lose your trips, that's why I cannot stress enough that its not a matter of high risk vs low risk people. if i get sick, that's really bad news about the spread. None of us are excluded from this, we're all in it together.
Good discussion .... suggest keeping things fact-based to the extent we can, and minimizing speculation. Agree that following CDC guidelines is important and prudent. Covid-19 is undoubtedly soon to be designated a 'pandemic' (which will free up global funding to lesser developed countries to encourage more cohesive and global actions) ... best that we all stay informed, self-aware and responsible, so it doesn't become a 'panic epidemic'. As an aside, here's an interesting read from Wired about "Is it okay to make jokes and memes about coronavirus": Is It OK to Make Coronavirus Memes and Jokes?
Adam Kucharski on Twitter <- This is a thread from a Mathematician and epidemiologist. The thread explains the calculation of the fatality rate of covid19, which lands at 2%. Here is the entire data set he used: calthaus/ncov-cfr its probably too advanced for some people here, but ill go ahead and translate that, 'BY THE NUMBERS' its not over blown. As more data points come in with the increase of testing kits, we'll actually see whats going on using science. Do your part, washing your dick beaters, stay home if you can and we can all make it to TTR
